Zitat People flowing out of Alberta for first time in 15 years
More people left province than came in during third quarter of the year, Statistics Canada reports
Calgary — The Canadian Press Published on Wednesday, Dec. 23, 2009 3:11PM EST Last updated on Wednesday, Dec. 23, 2009 5:51PM EST
Saddled with dwindling employment and shrinking energy prices, Alberta seems to be losing its status as the promised land for job-seekers from across Canada.
For more than a decade the province's resource-rich economy has drawn in hundreds of thousands of people from Saskatchewan, Newfoundland and Labrador and elsewhere.
But Statistics Canada's third-quarter population estimate for 2009 shows more people left Alberta for other provinces than moved in.
That's the first time that has happened since 1994.
Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist with the Bank of Montreal, says the province was pulling in almost 50,000 people a year from other provinces at the height of the energy boom.
“It is an amazing turnaround from as recently as three years ago when, on average, we were seeing about 12,000 or 13,000 net new migrants [per quarter] into Alberta from the rest of the country,” he said Wednesday.
The culprit is probably a rising unemployment rate that's the result of tumbling energy prices, Mr. Porter said.
For example, Saskatchewan's unemployment rate was consistently higher than Alberta's several years ago but is now two percentage points lower.
“The relative attractiveness of Alberta has at least temporarily waned.”
Todd Hirsch, a senior economist with ATB Financial, said in a daily economic note that the change is a result of a recession that could have left many people who came to the province from elsewhere suddenly unemployed.
“Because so much of Alberta's labour force arrived over the past few years from other provinces, it is logical that job-seekers may decide to return home if they find themselves out of work in Alberta.”
Marion Hayes, who owns Pazzer's Saskatchewan Pub in Calgary, said she's been hearing here and there of people who are moving back home – or making the move for the first time.
The former Saskatchewan resident said the cost of living is still high in Alberta compared to elsewhere and there's not as many job opportunities.
“It's not as rosy as it was when I moved here in 2000,” she said.
Many people are feeling the pinch, but most people who come into the pub seem so far to be willing to ride out the recession, she said.
“I hope it doesn't get worse, because that's just a sign the economy isn't picking up and people are getting tired of waiting.”
Saskatoon real estate agent Terry Alm said he's definitely seeing more people from Alberta looking for homes than even a year ago. Many seem to be lured to the province by jobs in mining or construction, he said.
It's also not uncommon to see men coming out alone to work while their families stay behind, he added.
“What I'm seeing quite a bit of right now is the husband coming out of Calgary and his wife and family staying there.”
Mr. Porter said it's unlikely the trend of people leaving Alberta will continue for too long because the energy sector has seen some recent gains that will probably lead to a revival of jobs.
Alberta's unemployment soared during the global recession, but it has shown recent signs of recovery. The province's employment rose by 13,000 in November, the biggest gain in more than a year.
Mr. Porter predicted it might not bounce back immediately, so it might be a couple of years before people start flowing back.
Alberta lost more people to other parts of Canada than it gained in the third quarter of 2009, a first in 15 years for the once booming province.
Babies and new immigrants helped Alberta's population grow by .44 per cent, or 16,300 people, from July to October, slightly above the national average, according to Statistics Canada numbers released Wednesday.
But at the same time, Alberta posted a net loss in inter-provincial migration of 2,535 people. Alberta saw 20,790 move to the province from other parts of Canada but saw another 23,325 people leave.
"That kind of migration, inter-provincial migration, is often linked with economic cycles," said Statistics Canada demographer Julien Berard-Chagnon.
"Despite these losses, Alberta's population grew mainly because of international immigration and natural increase … more births than deaths."
The biggest draw was neighbouring British Columbia, which attracted about a third of the departing Albertans and saw an overall inter-provincial migration gain of 3,500 people. Twenty-five per cent of those who left Alberta went to Ontario and 13 per cent went to Saskatchewan.
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