Canada Talk » Economic Outlook 2009

Economic Outlook 2009
December 19, 2008

• Export-oriented and manufacturing-intensive provinces (namely Ontario and
Quebec) will continue to be the hardest hit. The economies of both provinces are
expected to contract in 2009. The weaker loonie will provide some solace but making
up for the significant reduction in U.S. demand will be difficult, if not impossible.

• The Atlantic Provinces are expected to avoid recession. It is anticipated that
the economies of New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island will
experience marginal growth in 2009 – less than 0.5 percent – while Newfoundland
and Labrador is projected to grow by 1 percent. New Brunswick, which relies
heavily on exports to the U.S., will be wrestling with dwindling demand south of the
border. The winding down of major energy construction projects will also constrain
economic growth in the province. Nova Scotia’s economy will get a boost in 2009
as construction ramps up on a huge offshore natural gas project (Deep Panuke)
and container shipping facilities but like other provinces, its export sector (primarily
resources and manufacturing) will struggle with declining global demand. In Prince
Edward Island, the government recently announced $510 million over fi ve years
in capital spending aimed at stimulating the province’s economy which is feeling
the pinch from slowing in the all-important tourism industry. The Newfoundland
and Labrador economy will experience a sharp drop in crude oil production as
the province’s oil fields mature. Other sectors are also facing a downturn including
mineral exploration and fisheries. The domestic economy – housing and retail –
is generally strong and will continue to provide economic momentum in 2009.

• Annual growth of less than 0.5 percent is also projected for Alberta and British
Columbia. In Alberta, elevated costs and declining energy prices present
the most significant risk. Some oil-sands projects are likely to be delayed or
cancelled. British Columbia’s export sector – particularly lumber and forestry
– is still reeling from the U.S. residential construction downturn and will not see
much improvement in the year ahead. Base metal prices have also come down
significantly and demand has weakened. The province’s economy remains
supported by infrastructure spending ahead of the 2010 Winter Olympic Games.
Economic Outlook 2009 | Canadian Chamber of Commerce6

• Manitoba will continue to be among the top performing provinces in 2009 as it has a
well diversified economy. Its agriculture sector continues to adapt to changing market
conditions. The province has developed a dynamic hub for the manufacture of
transportation equipment (both intercity and transit buses) for which demand remains
strong. Its export sector is evenly split between international and interprovincial
destinations. Construction is expected to start on Canada’s largest wind farm and
other major infrastructure projects are underway across the province.

• Saskatchewan is expected to experience the highest growth rate in 2008 and
2009. The province has a well diversified mix of natural resources (like potash and
uranium) and agrifood (like grains and oilseeds) as well as a growing and diversified
manufacturing base.
Inflation to Drift Lower
Consumer price inflation, as measured by the All-items Consumer Price Index (CPI),

Thanks for the report – I have to say I’m thrilled to read again (I heard this before) that Manitoba and Saskatchewan are supposed to be better off than some of our other provinces during the crises. They deserve that for a change after being mostly on the lower end of the economic wealth for years.
I think it is time that these two get a piece of the economic cake for once.

Where did you find the report, Ralf….

Hi momo08,

I found this report on the website from the 'Chamber of Commerce' Canada,
here is the link for the complete report:

http://www.chamber.ca/cmslib/general/EconomicOutlook09.pdf